What was observed, what reached the MPC before impact, and what the published record establishes for every object.
What these histories measure
Target-Earth separates the time at which an exposure was made from the time at which its OBS80 record was recorded as submitted to the Minor Planet Center. The latter is used below to ask what information was actually available before atmospheric entry. Counts come from the retained WAMO/MPC cache and are evaluated against each selected terminal impact time. A late archival replacement time is not treated as proof that an original report was late; such gaps are stated explicitly.
The numerical reconstruction is independent and is not an MPC-issued orbit circular. Official ESA, NASA/JPL, MPC and peer-reviewed sources remain authoritative. Source set retrieved at .
2014 AA was observed only seven times during a short Catalina Sky Survey arc. Those positions indicated an Earth encounter, but the atmospheric event over the Atlantic was localized and confirmed later by combining the optical arc with infrasound. Observations recorded at MPC before impact: 7 of 7 (100%). All retained astrometry is timestamped before the selected impact, while the firm atmospheric confirmation and much tighter impact location came from post-event analysis. MPECs in chronological order: MPEC 2014-A2
Scientific literature and public English-language sources
2018 LA was discovered by the Catalina Sky Survey and identified as an impactor before it produced a fireball over Botswana. Later recovery of the Motopi Pan meteorites connected pre-impact telescopic measurements, atmospheric observations and laboratory material. Observations recorded at MPC before impact: 0 of 18 (0%). The retained WAMO rows carry later archival replacement times, so the zero pre-impact count in this cache is not evidence that the original reports were late; official and scientific accounts establish that the object was reported and predicted before impact. MPECs in chronological order: MPEC 2018-L4
Scientific literature and public English-language sources
ATLAS detected 2019 MO roughly half a day before its atmospheric entry near Puerto Rico. The first four positions reached the MPC and triggered JPL Scout, but the sparse arc did not provide certainty; international infrasound and government sensors confirmed the impact afterward. Observations recorded at MPC before impact: 4 of 7 (57%). The first submitted package was available before impact, while classification of the event as the fourth pre-impact discovery was secured only after the atmospheric detections were matched to the orbit. MPECs in chronological order: MPEC 2019-M72
Scientific literature and public English-language sources
2022 EB5 was discovered at Piszkéstető Observatory about two hours before entry over the Norwegian Sea. ESA Meerkat and NASA Scout produced an impact alert from the early packages, and observatories continued reporting astrometry until minutes before entry. Observations recorded at MPC before impact: 9 of 177 (5%). Only a small fraction of the complete retained record had arrived before the selected terminal time, but it was sufficient for a real pre-impact warning; the permanent designation was issued shortly after impact. MPECs in chronological order: MPEC 2022-E178
Scientific literature and public English-language sources
2022 WJ1 was first imaged at Mount Lemmon at 04:53 UTC and reported once four positions formed a usable package. Repeated follow-up refined the prediction for southern Ontario and enabled a rare telescope-to-fireball physical characterization. Observations recorded at MPC before impact: 43 of 51 (84%). Most retained observations reached the MPC before entry, so both the warning and the narrowing impact region are genuinely pre-impact products rather than retrospective fits. MPECs in chronological order: MPEC 2022-W69
Scientific literature and public English-language sources
2023 CX1 was found at Piszkéstető Observatory and reported with a second position on the evening before its entry over the English Channel. Follow-up from Europe and elsewhere quickly drove automated systems to essentially certain impact and enabled meteorite recovery in Normandy. Observations recorded at MPC before impact: 186 of 368 (51%). A large pre-impact subset was already submitted, and the impact location was forecast before atmospheric entry rather than inferred only afterward. MPECs in chronological order: MPEC 2023-C103
Scientific literature and public English-language sources
2024 BX1 was discovered at Piszkéstető Observatory about three hours before its steep entry west of Berlin. More than two hundred follow-up measurements supported a precise warning, and recovered Ribbeck meteorites were subsequently classified as aubrites. Observations recorded at MPC before impact: 104 of 328 (32%). The retained cache shows a substantial pre-impact submission set; prediction preceded the event, while meteorite classification and detailed fragmentation analysis are necessarily post-impact results. MPECs in chronological order: MPEC 2024-B76
Scientific literature and public English-language sources
2024 RW1 was found by the Catalina Sky Survey ten hours before its fast atmospheric entry near Luzon. International follow-up reduced the predicted time and location uncertainty to about a tenth of a second and roughly one hundred metres before the object entered Earth's shadow. Observations recorded at MPC before impact: 75 of 187 (40%). The submitted pre-impact subset was sufficient for a confirmed warning and accurate location; the witnessed fireball later verified that prediction. MPECs in chronological order: MPEC 2024-R68
Scientific literature and public English-language sources
ATLAS observed 2024 UQ before its Pacific entry but reported the six positions about ten hours later. Pre-discovery Catalina images were found afterward and improved the orbit, making this a pre-impact detection in the image record but not a pre-impact warning. Observations recorded at MPC before impact: 0 of 9 (0%). No retained observation reached the MPC before the selected impact time; the collision was recognized retrospectively after the event. MPECs in chronological order: MPEC 2024-U49
Scientific literature and public English-language sources
2024 XA1 was discovered with the Bok telescope at Kitt Peak about ten hours before entry over the Sakha Republic. The first short arc gave only a small impact probability, but the next follow-up package caused ESA Meerkat and JPL Scout to converge on a certain collision. Observations recorded at MPC before impact: 41 of 79 (52%). The retained submission chronology contains a meaningful pre-impact set, and the impact was predicted before entry; later work refined possible meteorite strewn fields. MPECs in chronological order: MPEC 2024-X68
Scientific literature and public English-language sources
2026 JN4 is retained under the user's ESA-priority terminal time. ESA and CNEOS publish materially different terminal times and the available sources do not provide one source-coherent state spanning that gap; Target-Earth therefore keeps the JPL segment and the short ESA endpoint model separate. Observations recorded at MPC before impact: 2 of 6 (33%). Two retained observations reached the MPC before the ESA-priority terminal time, but ESA initially reported no solid atmospheric confirmation and added the object to its Past Impactors list later. The pre-impact alert is documented, while the terminal event remains explicitly source-sensitive. MPECs in chronological order: MPEC 2026-J143
Scientific literature and public English-language sources
